The Israel Coalition Builder lets you set party vote shares, applies the 3.25% threshold and the Bader-Ofer seat count with surplus-vote pacts, and shows whether the coalition you pick reaches 61 of 120 seats. It starts from the poll average. It is a calculator, not a forecast.
Pick a poll scenario or set your own vote shares. See which parties clear the 3.25% threshold, how the 120 seats fall, and whether your coalition reaches 61.
Polls report seats, not vote share. We convert each poll's seats into vote shares, average them by pollster, and let you change them. Then we run the real count: parties under 3.25% drop out, the rest get whole seats for each full seat's worth of votes, and the leftover seats go one at a time to the highest average (Bader-Ofer). Pacts pool two parties' leftovers. See Election Math and How to Read the Polls and Surplus-Vote Agreements.
Parties that polls report below the threshold use the vote share the pollsters published, or the average of those when a poll gave none. We assume % of voters back small lists that do not appear in the polls (Israel First, Noam, Haredi Public and others). Change that with the last slider. Israel First, Noam and Haredi Public are not in the polls we track, so they are in that bucket.
The poll tracker averages each poll's seats. This tool averages vote shares first, then applies the threshold. A party that polls around 3% is four seats in some polls and zero in others. In the average it sits just under the line, so it gets nothing and its votes are shared among the parties that clear it. That is how the threshold behaves in a real count, and it is why the two views can differ by a seat or two.
This is a calculator, not a forecast. Israeli polls miss by a lot (read why). Seating order is illustrative, left to right by political position, and does not match the real chamber. The tool does the arithmetic. It says nothing about which coalitions are politically realistic, who the president would ask first, or who would sit with whom.
It turns vote shares into seats the way Israel does. Lists under 3.25% are dropped, each list gets whole seats by quota, and leftover seats go by the highest votes per seat plus one. Surplus-vote pacts pool the leftovers of two lists, but only if both pass the threshold.
No. It is a calculator. It starts from the poll average and lets you change vote shares to see how seats move. Seat counts in the builder can differ slightly from the poll tracker because the builder converts seats to vote shares and re-runs the count.
Its votes are thrown out and its seats are shared among the lists that passed. Drag a party across the line in the builder to see how many seats move and which bloc gains.